Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Phantom students and "hold harmless"

Vermont uses the metric of "education spending per equalized pupil" to determine how a district's budget will affect the local property tax rate.

Like much of the education funding formula, this sounds easy to understand until you dig into it.  The number of pupils is just the number of students (preK through 12) in our town, right?  Nope!

In the FY'15 school year (2014-2015), we have a total of 295 students (15 preK, 169 K-8, 111 9-12).  This is the real number of students who are enrolled.

Yet, if one looks at the state data for number of "equalized students" in the Westford district, you see the number is 318.52.  Why is this number different (~7.8% higher)?  What does a fractional student look like?

This phenomenon has come to be known as "phantom students".  There are several factors in the state's formula that bring this about.

  1. Student weighting
  2. Two year averaging
  3. Hold harmless provision
Student weighting

The state has made the assertion that education costs are expected to be different for certain student groups.  For example, it is assumed that students in PreK are less costly to educate than students in grades K through 6, and that secondary students (grades 7 through 12) are more costly. Weighting is also higher for ELL (English Language Learners), FRL (Free and Reduced Lunch) students, etc.  

Based on your mix of students and economic conditions, this will change your "equalized pupil" number.  Westford has relatively low numbers for ELL and FRL, and a shrinking number of secondary students. 

Two year averaging

Averaging pupil counts over two years helps smooth out random spikes and dips in student population.  This allows for reacting to trends rather than one-time events.  

Hold harmless provision

Schools that are experiencing large, sudden changes in student population are limited in the percentage of student loss in a single year.  That limit is currently a decrease of 3.5% of their prior year equalized pupil count.  For example, if a district 's two-year average were to drop 5% of students in a single year, their "equalized student" number would only decrease by 3.5% in the first year, then, assuming the student number remains unchanged, the second year will see a decrease of an additional 1.5%.  

By dampening the effect of large change, this gives a district time to adjust staffing to react to enrollment changes.  It also helps town taxpayers by spreading out the tax impact over two years.  

However, this mechanism wasn't really designed to deal with the type of declining enrollment our state has seen.  Extended enrollment decline of greater than 3.5% has a cumulative effect that may lead to a district falling under hold harmless protection even after enrollment has stabilized for several years.  

As student populations have decreased, especially in districts where one or two families leaving the system can cause a significant percentage change, we see cases of always hitting the hold harmless limit.  

Westford has hit the limit for the past several years.  We expect to remain in that place for several more years.  Large scale migration effects like the closure of the trailer park take many years to overcome.  Similarly, our graduating high school classes (the last of the baby boomer generation's children) are larger than our incoming classes.  

At 295 students preK-12, 3.5% is roughly 9 students.  




All districts in the state play by these rules, Westford is no different.  In our budget presentations, you will find our real student numbers and the equalized pupil count.  

How we use them:
  • Equalized pupil numbers (aka "Phantom students") are used for all statutory calculations, such as spending per equalized pupil, local tax rate, etc.  The state requires this.
  • Actual student numbers are used for all staffing decisions, expected case load, busing contracts, high school tuition, materials purchases, etc.  We budget based on real students.